Hey guys, Welcome to FactsMinister. Today we are going to talk in detail about the ongoing Russia Ukraine Conflict.
Ukraine and Russia have shared cultural, linguistic, and familial ties for hundreds of years. For many in Russia and in the ethnically Russian portions of Ukraine, the shared heritage of the countries is an emotional topic used for electoral and military goals. Ukraine was the Soviet Union’s second-most powerful republic after Russia, and it played a critical geopolitical, economic, and cultural role. Since Ukraine’s breakup from the Soviet Union, Russia and the West have competed for increased influence in the country in order to maintain the region’s power balance. Ukraine serves as a vital buffer between Russia and the West for the United States and the European Union. European Square was a wave of protests and civil disturbances in Ukraine that began in November 2013 with demonstrations at Kiev’s Maidan Nezalezhnosti “Independence Square”
The protests spurred by the Ukrainian government’s decision to put off signing an association agreement with the European Union, preferring instead to strengthen ties with Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union. The Donbass region (the Donetsk and Luhansk regions) in eastern Ukraine has been facing a pro-Russian separatist movement since 2014. The movement is actively supported by the Russian government, according to the Ukrainian government, and Russian paramilitaries.
THE CRIMEA INVASION
Russia grabbed Crimea from Ukraine, marking the first time since World War II that a European country has taken land from another. The annexation of Crimea from Ukraine came as a result of a Russian military intervention in Crimea in the aftermath of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, which was part of broader turmoil in southern and eastern Ukraine. Russia has gained a nautical advantage in the region as a result of its invasion and subsequent annexation of Crimea.
THE MINSK AGREEMENTS
Minsk I: In September 2014, Ukraine and separatists supported by Russia reached a 12-point ceasefire agreement in Belarus’ capital. It includes provisions for prisoner exchanges, humanitarian relief delivery, and the removal of heavy armaments. The arrangement immediately fell apart, with both parties breaking it.
Minsk II: In 2015, an open confrontation averted. thanks to the signing of the ‘Minsk II’ peace deal, which was mediated by France and Germany. Its goal was to put an end to the combat in the rebel-held areas and hand over the border to Ukrainian soldiers.
THE NATO ISSUE OF UKRAINE AND BLACK SEA
The Black Sea is surrounded by Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine. All of these nations are NATO members. The Black Sea has become a key zone and a potential maritime flashpoint as a result of the standoff between NATO members and Russia.
The Black Sea region’s distinctive terrain provides Russia with significant geopolitical advantages. Access to the Black Sea is critical for all littoral and bordering states, and it considerably boosts power projection into various adjacent regions. The region also serves as a vital transportation hub for products and energy. Ukraine has requested that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) expedite his country’s membership.
Russia has dubbed such a move a “serious issue,” fearful of the ramifications of US-led military alliances encroaching on its borders.
THE CURRENT SCENARIO
Ukraine is encircled on all sides by more than 100,000 Russian troops, with world leaders flying in and out of Kyiv in the hopes of finding a solution to the crisis that will prevent a Russian invasion. The issue is the most high-stakes manifestation of the country’s 30-year history of being stuck between East and West, oscillating between Moscow’s and the US’s European allies’ influences. Ukraine has emerged with its democracy intact, despite scandals, conflict, and two major protest movements, choosing pro-Western presidents at times and Kremlin-aligned leaders at other times.
TIMELINE OF THE CRISIS
Year 2021 — Russia Ukraine Conflict
November 2021 : Satellite footage indicates a new build-up of Russian troops near Ukraine’s border, and Kyiv claims Moscow has mobilised 100,000 soldiers, as well as tanks and other military equipment.
December 2021 : President Joe Biden of the United States has warned Russia that if it invades Ukraine, it will face broad economic penalties from the West. Russia makes precise security demands on the West, including that NATO end all military activity in eastern Europe and Ukraine and never admit Ukraine or any former Soviet republics as members.
Year 2022 — Russia Ukraine Conflict
January 2022 : Biden promises Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that if Russia invades Ukraine, the US will “act firmly.” The two men talked on the phone about getting ready for a series of planned diplomatic talks to deal with the problem. Officials from the United States and Russia are meeting in Geneva for diplomatic talks, but their differences remain unsolved as Moscow reiterates security demands that Washington refuses to accept. NATO deploys additional ships and fighter jets to Eastern Europe, bolstering its military presence. Some Western governments began removing non-essential embassy employees from Kyiv. The United States has placed 8,500 troops on high alert.
Mid January 2022 : Washington responds to Russia’s security demands in writing, reiterating its commitment to NATO’s “open-door” policy while providing a “principled and pragmatic assessment” of Moscow’s concerns. In February, Biden predicted a Russian invasion. China lends its political clout to Russia, telling the United States that Moscow’s “legitimate security concerns” should be “considered seriously.” Russia’s primary security needs have not been met, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin, but Moscow is willing to keep negotiating. President Zelenkskyy of Ukraine has warned the West against inciting “fear” that will harm his country’s economy.
February 2022 — Russia Ukraine Conflict
February 1st 2022 : Putin denies an invasion and accuses the United States of neglecting his country’s security requests. He stated, “It is already evident that core Russian concerns were overlooked.”
February 6th 2022 : According to American sources cited anonymously in US media, Russia has completed 70 percent of the military buildup required to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
February 8th 2022 : In Moscow, French President Emmanuel Macron meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin for protracted talks and tells reporters that Russia would not worsen the Ukraine situation. The Kremlin, on the other hand, denied that Macron and Putin had reached an agreement to de-escalate the conflict.
February 10th 2022 : Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meet in vain. Lavrov described the encounter as “a talk between a mute and a deaf person” at a frosty press conference. He went on to say that his team’s “facts” about the crisis “bounced off” their British counterparts. Truss, who has warned of harsh Western penalties if Ukraine is attacked, pressed Lavrov on his claim that Russia’s troop and armament buildup poses no threat to anyone.
February 11th 2022 : According to Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, US information indicates that a Russian invasion may begin within days, before the Beijing Olympics end on February 20. To reassure friends, the Pentagon ordered an additional 3,000 US troops dispatched to Poland. Meanwhile, a number of countries urged their citizens to flee Ukraine, with some warning that in the case of war, a military evacuation will not be possible.
February 12th 2022 : Biden and Putin have a video conference call. The US president said a Russian invasion of Ukraine would inflict “widespread human suffering” and that the West was dedicated to diplomacy to end the issue but “equally prepared for other scenarios”. Putin said in the call that the US and NATO had failed to meet Russian demands that Ukraine be barred from joining the military alliance.
February 15th 2022 : The US cautioned on February 15th that a Russian invasion of Ukraine was still a distinct possibility. In a televised address, US President Joe Biden claimed that reports of military pullbacks are unsubstantiated, and that the number of Russian troops encircling Ukraine has been revised from 1,00,000 to 1,50,000.
February 16th 2022 : The Russian defence ministry confirmed the completion of military drills in Crimea on Wednesday, according to AFP. A video showing Russian military equipment and forces leaving Crimea was provided by Russia’s defence ministry. The decision comes after Moscow announced on Tuesday that some of its troops are returning to their home bases, indicating a reduction in tensions over Ukraine.
US RESPONSE TO MILITARY PULL BACK BY RUSSIA
American officials have not validated Russia’s claim that it is withdrawing some troops from Ukraine’s border, according to US President Joe Biden, who also stated that Russian forces remain “very much in a threatening position” and that “an invasion remains very imaginable.” He went on to say that Russia has over 150,000 troops around Ukraine, which is a greater figure than US authorities had previously stated. Biden, speaking from the White House’s East Room, promised to “give diplomacy every chance” to prevent a Russian attack. He also stated that he would not “compromise core principles” by allowing countries to select the geometry of their own borders.
INDIA’S ROLE IN THE CRISIS
India did not join the Western powers in condemning Russia’s incursion in Crimea and maintained a low profile on the subject. India voted against a UN resolution proposed by Ukraine condemning alleged human rights breaches in Crimea in November 2020, so siding with old ally Russia on the matter. In Recent crisis to India remained neutral in its approach on the ongoing Russia Ukraine Conflict.
WAY FORWARD
A practical solution for the situation is to revive the Minsk peace process. As a result, the West, the United States and other western countries should press both sides to resume discussions and honour their promises under the Minsk Accord in order to restore relative peace along the border.
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